China's soft (not hard) landing

Roach, Stephen S. (September 30, 2011). China’s Landing – Soft not Hard, Project Syndicate, retrieved October 4, 2011.

Business as usual in Beijing*

A while ago I posted a piece by the famously pessimistic Nouriel Roubini (the man that successfully predicted the Crash of 2008) about his similarly pessimistic outlook for the future of the Chinese economy.  Recently Stephen Roach (of Yale University) published an article that is more upbeat and argues that although it looks likely that China's economy will slow down it will enjoy a relatively welcome 'soft landing' as opposed to Roubini's tragic 'hard landing'.

Although Roach notes a number of the serious economic problems that the Chinese economy is currently facing - such as the serious property bubble, reducing property inflation and the US$1.7 trillion of local-government debt - he also notes a number of factors that the economy has going for it, such as the unprecedented large urbanisation of China and the ample liquidity of Chinese banks to absorb potential losses. He also correctly points out that the government is taking the risks of the property bubble seriously and is taking measures to crack down on property speculation as well as seeking to reduce inflation and food inflation in particular (the biggest driver of inflation in the country).

This leads him to conclude that although the Chinese economy is slowing down in the mid-term future it is likely that it will be soft gradual show down that will allow the economy to adequately adapt to the new pace of change.

You can read the article here: http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/roach9/English

BMF presentation notes

Many apologies for the lateness of this post.  I have been meaning to do a post on the presentation I gave to the Black Managerial Forum on the 19th August for a couple of days now.  Without further delay here it is, below you will find links to articles that I have published previously on this blog as well as the PPT I gave and the article that I wrote and Fahamu published that the PPT was based on.

• BMF Power Point Presentation
• The Chinese Economic Growth Miracle: Lessons for South Africa (pdf)
• Recommended reading list on the Chinese economy
• Recommended reading list on Chinese politics

Profile of Justin Yifu Lin by Evan Osnos

 This article written by The New Yorker's correspondent in Beijing, Evan Osnos, traces the life of one of China's most important economic reformers, Justin Yifu Lin.  Lin is with out a doubt one of the most important people in the story of China's economic rise, particularly in the early years during the 1980s.  The article tells the Lin's fascinating life story from his early days as a student leader in Taiwan to his dramatic arrival in mainland China as well as his development as an economist and his role in creating the policies that have helped fuel China's spectacular growth. 

You can read the abstract of his article here however if you want to read the full article you will need to buy it from the New Yorker or read it in the October 11th 2010 edition of the New Yorker Magazine.